New Government

On 6th May 2010 there was a general election which resulted in a new Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition government. All references to the Government on this page in relation to happenings before 6th May 2010 are references to the previous Labour Government first elected in 1997.

For more information see our Other UKAirport Issues page. As mentioned there The detail of the policy of the new Government towards aviation and airports remains to be seen but some idea of the direction of future policy can be gained from the note issued on 11th May 2010 of the agreements reached by the two parties in their coalition discussions and in the new Government's subsequent programme document The Coalition: our programme for government:. In relation to Climate Change the new Government says it believes that climate change is one of the gravest threats we face, and that urgent action at home and abroad is required." We need" says the programme document "to use a wide range of levers to cut carbon emissions, decarbonise the economy and support the creation of new green jobs and technologies. We will implement a full programme of measures to fulfil our joint ambitions for a low carbon and eco-friendly economy." In the same section of the programme document the Government says it will:

• cancel the third runway at Heathrow.
• refuse permission for additional runways at Gatwick and Stansted.
• replace Air Passenger Duty with a per-flight duty.

The new Minsister for Aviation, Theresa Villiers, has said the new Government is “committed to reducing emissions from transport and to ensuring we have the right framework in place for aviation to contribute to the UK's climate stabilisation goals. We will consider the detail of policy and announce our conclusions on the best way to achieve our aims in due course.”

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A Hot Issue

Over the past years there has been a huge escalation in public awareness and concern about climate change and the issue is now centre stage in the media.

Opinions vary but the previous Government says climate change is already happening and we need to act collectively and decisively if we are to avoid the worst impacts it could bring. The scientific consensus says the Government is that we must strive by 2050 to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50 per cent. And the Government says a developed country like the UK must go even further. This is why the Government have taken ground-breaking steps through its Climate Change Act 2008, setting a target to reduce UK greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 per cent by 2050. Under the Act, the Government also set five-yearly carbon budgets for the UK economy out to 2022. Climate change it says is an international, not just a domestic issue.

The new focus on the climate change issue obscures the work going on in the background to deal with the issues which surfaced some long time ago. For example in his 2002 pre Budget Report the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that the Government would discuss with stakeholders the most effective economic instruments for ensuring that the aviation industry is encouraged to take account of, and where appropriate reduce, its contribution to global warming, and local air and noise pollution.

The UK’s legislative framework complements the package of targets agreed with our partners in Europe aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions and delivering more energy from renewable sources across the EU by 2020. And at a global level we need to agree to significant further cuts in emissions. Securing international agreement to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from aviation and shipping says the Government is a vital part of this deal. Against this background aviation is firmly in the spotlight and given the coverage it receives it would be surprising if emissions from aircraft were not perceived as already the primary cause of climate change! Nonetheless aviation emissions are growing and action needs to be taken now to address the issue.

On this page we have tried to gather the various milestones in the climate change story as they affect aviation.

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White Paper - The Future of Air Transport

On 16th December 2003 the Government issued it's White Paper - "The Future of Aviation"  - which sets out a strategic framework for the development of airport capacity in the United Kingdom over the next 30 years - there is more about the White Paper on our Wider UK Issues page.

Already claimate change was perceived as an issue for aviation and the White Paper sought to address the issue in paragraphs 3.35 to 3.43 of Chapter Three. This noted the increasing focus on the growing contribution of air transport to climate change. It said that forecasts had suggested that by 2030 CO2 emissions from UK aviation will amount to some sixteen to eighteen million tonnes of carbon, of which some 97 per cent would be from international flights. This could amount to about a quarter of the UK's total contribution to global warming by that date.

The White Paper was supported by forecasts of demand for air travel at UK airports which were reported in Air Traffic Forecasts for the United Kingdom in 2000.  Further supporting analysis of demand and carbon emissions forecasts from UK aviation were set out in Passenger Forecasts: Additional Analysis and Aviation and Global Warming in 2004.

For more information see our Wider UK Issues page.

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Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts

On 14th December 2006 the Government published a Progress Report on the White Paper in which the Department promised to publish a technical note on our passenger demand forecast methods and results and revised UK aviation emissions forecasts.

The 140 page Report was published in November 2007. It sets out the Government's latest demand, CO2 forecasting, and appraisal methods; gives updated passenger demand and CO2 forecasts; and updates its economic appraisal results.

The headline findings are:

• If unconstrained by airport capacity, air travel demand at UK airports is forecast under the central case to grow strongly from 228 million passengers per annum (mppa) in 2005 to 495mppa in 2030 (within the range 460-540mppa).
• UK aviation CO 2 emissions are forecast to grow from 37.5MtCO 2 in 2005 to 59MtCO 2 in 2030 (within the range 55MtCO 2 to 63MtCO 2) . After 2030, the growth in emissions is projected to slow, partly due to capacity constraints slowing demand growth. By 2050 emissions are projected to flatten and reach 60MtCO 2 , within the range 53MtCO 2 to 67MtCO 2 .
• An updated analysis shows that the development of a new runway at Stansted, and at Heathrow (subject to noise and air quality conditions), supported in the Air Transport White Paper, would deliver a net economic benefit of £21-22bn (net present value, 2006 prices). The development would have a strong Benefit-Cost Ratio in the range 2.8-3.0.

The Report says that since 2004 there had been a number of developments relevant to the Department's forecasts of passenger demand and CO2 emissions, and appraisal results:

• In 2006 the Government published the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change and the Eddington study.  Following the recommendations in these reports, the DfT has revised its Transport Appraisal Guidance to include a requirement that economic appraisal of transport schemes should include quantification and monetisation of impacts on carbon emissions.
• The Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform (BERR) has revised its projections of oil prices, while the Treasury and the IMF have updated their forecasts of UK and international economic growth.
• DEFRA has revised its guidance on the shadow price of carbon dioxide.

The Department added that it has updated its airport capacity assumptions in line with the latest plans indicated by airport operators, and the Department's process of continual development has delivered a number of incremental improvements to their forecasting methodology.

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Emissions Trading

In its White Paper The Future of Air Transport the Government said it believed that the best way of ensuring that aviation contributed towards the goal of climate stabilisation would be through a well-designed emissions trading regime. For an international industry, an international trading regime was the best solution. The Government thus intended to press for the inclusion of intra-EU air services in the forthcoming EU emissions trading scheme.

The growing impact of aviation emissions on climate change was already high on the agenda of the European Commission. From the outset the EU had thought that one way to secure this would be to extend the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) to include emissions from the aviation sector. In December 2004 the Commission asked a small consortium of environmental consultants to study and advise on the feasibility of doing this. Their report, published in July 2005, can be seen on the Commission's website.

After more consultations and discussions the European Climate Change Panel (ECCP) set up by the Commission to take forward the proposal delivered its final report at the end of April 2006 and on 20th December 2006 the Commission published its proposal for legislation accompanied by a press releaseEU Press Release on proposal for legislation.

The proposals allowed for aviation to be brought into the EU ETS in two steps. From the start of 2011, emissions from all domestic and international flights between EU airports would be covered. One year later, at the start of 2012, the scope would be expanded to cover emissions from all international flights – from or to anywhere in the world – that arrive at or depart from an EU airport. The intention was for the EU ETS to serve as a model for other countries considering similar national or regional schemes, and to link these to the EU scheme over time. Therefore, the EU ETS could form the basis for wider, global action.

On 30th March 2007 the UK Government launched a consultation on the Commission's proposals and on the Government’s initial analysis of the changes required to them. The comments received will guide the UK Government’s negotiating position. Details of the consultation are to be found in the DfT's press releaseDFT Press Release on consultation to include aviation in EU-ETS. The consultation document and associated papers can be seen on The Department's website. The closing date for comments was 1st June 2007.

The proposal was finally approved and signed off on 19th November 2008 and, following its publication in the EU's Official Journal on 13 January 2009, is now in force as EU Directive 2008/101/EC. Member States now have until 2 February 2010 to bring into force the laws, regulations and administrative provisions necessary to comply with this Directive. The adopted Directive contains some important changes when compared with those orginally drawn up by the Commission:-

• Aviation will be included in the EU ETS from 2012; a proposed one-year introductory phase for intra-EU flights starting in 2011 has been dropped
• Emissions from aviation will be capped at 97% of their average 2004-2006 level in 2012. This will decrease to 95% from 2013, although this percentage may be reviewed as part of the general review of the Emissions Trading Directive
• Airlines will receive 85% of their emission allowances for free in 2012. This percentage may be reduced from 2013 as part of the general review of the Emissions Trading Directive.
• An exemption has been introduced for commercial air operators with very low traffic levels on routes to, from or within the EU or with low annual emissions (less than 10 000 tonnes CO2 a year). This means many operators from developing countries with only limited air traffic links with the EU will be exempt. This will not have a significant effect on the emissions covered by the EU ETS.
• A special reserve of free allowances has been added for new entrants or very fast-growing airlines. The reserve does not increase the overall cap on allowances and therefore does not affect the environmental impact of the system. Airlines that are growing will be able to benefit from the reserve up to a limit of one million allowances.
• A new mechanism has been introduced to ensure consistent and robust enforcement throughout the EU. As a last resort, Member States could ask for an operator to be banned from operating in the EU if it persistently fails to comply with the system and other enforcement measures have proven ineffective.

There is a useful article published in Low Fare and Regional Airlines in March 2009 by Simon McNamara, the ERA's Director of Industry Affairs, on how the scheme will work for airlines and the preparations they will need to make for its introduction

Member States had until 2 February 2010 to bring into force the laws, regulations and administrative provisions necessary to comply with the Directive. The UK Government was quickly off the mark with an announcement on 4th March 2009 that the scheme would be supervised in the UK by the Environment Agency.  The same day the Government launched a stage one consultation about the transposition of the first stage of the Directive. The closing date for responses was 14th May 2009 and on 25th August 2009 the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) made the Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme Regulations 2009 (SI 2009/ 2301) which came into force on 17th September 2009.

On 11th December 2009 DECC launched a consultation on the second stage of transposition. This involves new Regulations to put in place additional requirements on operators and the remaining powers which the regulators will need to administer the system. The new Regulations will repeal in part and replace the first stage Regulations and provide for full transposition of the Directive. The consultation closed on 5th March 2010. Early in May 2010 DECC said they were then finalising the Regulations and it was the intention to lay them before Parliament in the summer of 2010.

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Sustainable Aviation Strategy

This Strategy, unveiled in June 2005, is the work of UK airlines, airport operators, aircraft manufacturers and NATS, the principal air navigation service provider. It is billed as the first national sustainability strategy ever produced for the aviation industry and establishes the mechanisms for monitoring and reporting on progress towards the goals and detailed commitments it sets out. The key elements are:

• Limiting climate change impact by improving fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions by 50 per cent per seat kilometre by 2020 compared with 2000 levels;
• Improving air quality by reducing nitrogen oxide emissions by 80 per cent over the same period;
• Lowering the perceived external noise of new aircraft by 50 per cent by 2020 compared with their 2000 equivalents;
• Establishing a common system for the reporting of total CO2 emissions and fleet fuel efficiency by the end of 2005, and pressing for aviation's inclusion in the EU emissions trading scheme at the earliest possible date;
• New airport plans for community-related noise limitations, including landing and take-off restrictions where necessary.

The signatory companies agreed to publish a progress report every two years measuring progress towards the Goals. The Report published in 2009 can be seen on the Group's website.

Reference is made to the CO2 Roadmap which the group published in December 2008.

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Parliamentary Environmental Audit Committee

On 23rd July 2007 the UK Parliament's Environmental Audit Committee publsihed The Voluntary Carbon Offset Market

This says the airline industry must engage with the Government and accept that it needs to do more now to mitigate emissions from its planes and to encourage uptake of offsets amongst its customers as a matter of priority.

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Sustainable Development Commission

On 21st May 2008 the Sustainable Development Commission (SDC) published a report, prepared jointly with Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), which calls for a special commission to establish the true benefits and impacts of aviation.

Among other things the report, entitled Breaking the holding pattern - A new approach to aviation policy making in the UK, argues there is widespread controversy over key data on air travel in the UK including its contribution to climate change.

For more information see our Planning page. The SDC is due to be wound up by trhe new Government

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Aviation Emissions Cost Assessment 2008

Following a period of consultation during 2007 the Government in July 2008 published the report Aviation Emissions Cost Assessment 2008. The aim of the assessment, which was promised in the Progress Report on the White Paper The Future of Air Transport was to provide a strategic view on the extent to which the aviation sector is covering its climate change costs. The Report said this information would contribute to the evidence provided to inform decisions on major increases in aviation capacity.

The Report said the assessment:

• was a strategic assessment covering the UK as a whole
• could be used to enhance our contextual understanding of the climate change costs of aviation when considering major increases in aviation capacity.

The assessment, which was not intended to cover all the external costs of aviation, would be carried out approximately every three years. It was anticipated that this would coincide with the regular review and report on progress in delivering the Future of Air Transport agenda.

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UK Aviation: Carbon Reduction Futures

This report by Manchester Metropolitan University and Cranfield University was commissioned by the Department for Transport in the Spring of 2008 to contribute to the evidence base on future opportunities to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from UK domestic aviation. 

In commenting on the Report the Department notes it is just one piece of evidence to be considered alongside others work addressing similar issues, but provides a valuable contribution to this important area of research. The Department also comments that the report was commissioned before the announcement of the target to reduce aviation CO2 emissions below 2005 levels by 2050. Hence, the forecasts of UK domestic aviation CO2 emissions included in the Report do not assume this target, and rely on DfT forecasts as published in November 2007, which were the latest at the time. The Department published more recent forecasts in January 2009, which were not however significantly different to those of 2007.

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Transport Select Committee’s Report on The Future of Aviation

In a wide-ranging report published on 7th December 2009, the Transport Select Committee stressed the need to curb pollution from aviation. The Committee called for higher environmental standards to reduce CO2, air pollution and noise. With regard to carbon emissions from aviation in the UK, the Committee set out a number of principleswhich it believes should be applied to future UK policy in this area, and looked forward to the Committee on Climate Change's report (8 December) detailing how the aviation industry could sensibly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decades.

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The Heathrow Judgement

On 7 April 2009 a number of environmental groups, together with six local authorities (Hammersmith and Fulham, Hounslow, Hillingdon, Kensington and Chelsea, Richmond upon Thames, Wandsworth and Windsor and Maidenhead) and residents groups, had launched a legal challenge against the government’s decision to press ahead with the expanasion of Heathrow Airport. The coalition claimed there was a failure to conduct a lawful consultation, that the decision was irrational and/or disproportionate and there was a failure to provide an adequately reasoned decision.

The case was finally heard in the High Court in February 2010 and the Court’s judgement was issued on 26th March. Among other things the judge ruled that:

• If the Government decided to push ahead with the runway project it should review the climate change implications of Heathrow expansion, the economic case for a third runway, and the issue of how additional passengers would get to a bigger airport.
• The Government’s entire aviation policy should now be reviewed to take into account the implications of the 2008 Climate Change Act. The judge found that the claimants’ submissions added up, in his view, to a powerful demonstration of the potential significance of developments in climate change policy since the 2003 Air Transport White Paper. They were clearly matters which would need to be taken into account under the new Airports National Policy Statement.

The judge invited the Government to sign a legally binding undertaking that it would not base future aviation policy solely on its 2003 white paper.  There would be a further court hearing to examine the Government's response to the judge's request.

For more information see our Wider UK Issues page.

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Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future

Described as a Carbon Reduction Strategy for Transport this document was published by the the Department for Transport in July 2009. The strategy sets out how the Department intends to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transport. It also shows how transport will make a major contribution to UK efforts to reduce CO2 emissions by 2022 and 2050 in line with the Climate Change Act 2008.

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Committee on Climate Change (CCC) - Report on options to meet the UK's aviation emissions target

This Report, published on 8th December 2009, says that aviation policy should be based on the assumption that demand growth between now and 2050 cannot exceed 60% if the UK is to meet the Government’s target that aviation emissions in 2050 must  not exceed  2005 levels.

The report concludes that fuel efficiency and operational improvements are likely to result in a 30% reduction in carbon emissions per seat km flown and that  sustainable biofuels could account for 10% of aviation fuel use in 2050. Faster   technological improvements are possible, but unless and until they are achieved, it is not prudent to assume that demand increases of more than 60% are compatible with the target. Fuel efficiency improvements will arise from  engine and airframe design innovation, and improved efficiency of Air Traffic Movements and operations.  Increased investment in aircraft technology research and development might make it possible to secure more rapid progress than is currently likely.

The report finds that the use of biofuels in aviation is likely to be technically and economically viable. However, there are  significant uncertainties over the level of sustainable biofuels available for use in aviation, for three reasons:

•   the land area and water resource required given increased food demand resulting from an increasing world population
• technological uncertainty over the feasibility of  biofuels production that does  not require agricultural land (e.g. algae based )
• other demands for biomass feedstocks to produce low-carbon energy (e.g. biofuels for  HGVs, biomass power generation). It is therefore prudent to base current policy on the assumption  that biofuels cannot account for more than 10%  of the total  aviation fuel mix in 2050.

The report finds that on a “business as usual” path  UK air passenger demand would grow over 200% by  2050, reflecting the high income elasticity of demand .This  would not be compatible with meeting the UK’s aviation or wider economy emissions targets. The report highlights various options for reducing demand:

• A carbon price  rising gradually to £200 / tCO2 by 2050, combined with capacity constraints as envisaged in the 2003 Aviation White Paper (i.e. with addition of capacity at Edinburgh, Heathrow and Stansted but at no other airports) could limit demand growth to 115% by 2050.
• High-speed rail has the potential to substitute for domestic and short haul flights to Europe; this could result in a 10% aviation demand reduction in 2050.
• Video-conferencing technology is still at an early stage of development but by 2050 could substitute for up to 30% of business trips based on current best business practice.  

However, the combination of the anticipated carbon price, modal shift and increased use of videoconferencing in business is unlikely to constrain demand growth to 60%. Clear  additional policies (beyond the introduction of a carbon price at this level ) will therefore be  required to constrain passenger demand in the period to 2050.
 
The report notes that a demand increase of 60% could be compatible with a variety of different policies in respect to expansion at specific airports, which need to reflect a range of factors beyond the Committee’s remit. Expansion plans in aggregate however should be consistent with limiting passenger growth in 2050 to a maximum of 60% above 2005 levels.  

Throughout the report, the assumption is that UK action is in the context of an international agreement which limits aviation emissions in all countries.

The report considers non-CO2 effects from aviation (e.g. water vapour). The scientific evidence suggests that these are likely to result in increased warming, and will have to be included within both international and UK targets as scientific understanding improves. This may mean that the UK’s aviation target needs to be tightened in future.

The Committee’s annual report to Parliament in June 2010 will include an assessment of the latest data on UK aviation emissions.

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Transport Carbon Reduction Delivery Plan

The Transport Carbon Reduction Delivery Plan (CRDP) was published by the Department of Transport on 31st March 2010. It describes how we will deliver the policies set out in Low Carbon Transport: A Greener Future. At the same time it pubished the Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Transport 2010 - 2012 which sets out how the department aims to prepare the transport system to adapt to future climate change.

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Omega

Omega is a publicly funded partnership which offers impartial, innovative and topical insights into the environmental effects of the air transport industry and sustainability solutions.

The partnership embraces nine UK universities led by Manchester Metropolitan University with Cambridge and Cranfield. Other partners include Leeds, Loughborough, Oxford, Reading, Sheffield and Southampton. It draws on the expert skills in these institutions including the environmental and social sciences, technology, business, economics, environment, politics and global regulation.

The Group’s most recent reports can be accessed on their website

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